The Last Word…Maybe

(Owings Mills, MD) The annual primary debates at MPT are in the book. Earlier in the day all of the GOP candidates had the opportunity to make their case (the debate will air Friday, 6/5/14) during the time slot of State Circle.

The heavy weight event however, was the Democratic Primary Debate where my colleague Jeff Salkin moderated a Town Hall style format of undecided voters. These were people picked by the League of Women Voters who have been MPT Partners for some time. The group skewed older and white but, there was a smattering of color in the group.

There is always a delicate balance of MPT management coordinating an event like this with nothing left to chance. We learned this the hard way several years ago during a U.S. Senate Debate when Professor Alan Litchman, an uninvited participant, was removed from the building because he wanted to join the debate.  This year a fringe candidate (Cindy Walsh) made an attempt to get into the studio. She was promptly escorted from the premises.

These are unique choreographed events with each camp not wanting to interact with each other or seen being cordial. Separation is the key, leave little to chance. Yes, all three invitees showed up, no no-shows. Unlike in the past, the press was camped in an adjacent studio where my fellow scribes were hunched over their screens waiting to pounce. They have been through this song and dance before (and so have I). In my best impersonation of Judge Miles Lane, “let’s get it on.”

Blows But Nothing Fatal

I know in my mind the ability to get candidates off script is the key. The audience wants to see something of a heavy weight fight but, for all intents and purpose this is about the future of the state. The platforms and talking points have been repeated.

“I am the most experienced candidate in the field having served as Lieutenant Governor... and I'm an Iraq war veteran,” says Candidate Anthony Brown. “I’m not running for the job as Governor. I want to do the job as Governor,” an often repeated sound bite from Candidate Heather Mizeur.  According to Doug Gansler, “people are tired of labels (Democrat or Republican),” trying to improve his standing with independents and disaffected members of GOP.

In the primary it is about the base and getting them to the polls. It’s also about raising cash and the Brown/Ulman ticket has produced a wind fall in this area(in a short period). During the home stretch it comes down to buying TV time in the Baltimore or DC markets. Spend too early, and you can’t react to last minute attacks. Not enough money and you are essentially a bystander.

I believe the Brown Camp learned a valuable lesson when its candidate didn’t show up for a Debate at Fox 45. Be ready to answer critics. It was evident as the Brown Camp was ready for any mis-speak about the Lieutenant Governor. Several Press Releases (commonly known among the press corp as Pressers) showing previous statements were being handed out among our group.  Let me say this with a degree of understanding but, uneasiness about this process. Public Relation types want to the control message. The number of staffers dedicated to monitor my writings is small. Can’t imagine how many social media watchers and other staff monitor what is said about candidates in the state. This is not a new phenomenon. The Obama Administration has raised this to high art.

All the staffs conduct mock debates with stand-ins to coach nuanced answers to complicated questions. For Brown he continues to be dogged about the failed roll out of Maryland’s Healthcare Exchange. Gansler’s albatross is a pair of issues; how can you provide tax relief and his opposition to Pre-K expansion. Mizeur’s suggestion of using taxes from the sale of marijuana to fund much needed programs seems either utopian (without seeing its potential consequences) or amateur night politics.

This continues be a race for Brown to lose, and the opponents are looking for any opening to provide doubt. This is immediately pounced on by a question from the audience about the rollout of Maryland’s Exchange. Brown is asked to explain why the state is going with a Connecticut system? Candidate Brown has rehearsed this answer. He steps from the seated stool and moves towards the audience. He acknowledges the website rollout was a failure however he assures the questioner while looking at the camera that they signed up a record number of Medicare recipients. He’s forceful. Sun Critic, David Zurwick observed Brown seem to be playing to the camera rather than connecting directly to the questioner (semantics).

Gansler who is asked the same question rebuts the answer suggesting we should go with the federal system which has a lot of success despite its shaky roll out. He then narrows-in on the Browns participation and handling of the rollout. This he hopes will make voters think about Browns leadership.

Mizeur also jumps in on the failed rollout. She was a former Healthcare Lobbyist so her answers are less wonkish but, seem to pile on the perception of, “leadership failure.”

In a follow-up by Moderator Salkin, he quotes an editorial by the Baltimore Sun. It asks what role the Lieutenant Governor played in the failed rollout of the website. Salkin asks him to rate it on a scale of 1 -10. By time he finished answering, even I was confused. He claims he was in charge of the wrong committee.  The committee overseeing the roll of the website wasn’t under his control? But we fixed it. Duh. Here’s what I said on Twitter, “Brown asked what role he had in health exchange? Is vague w/answer. Won't give number on how involved he was on a 1-10 scale.”

Zurwick siezes on this stumble as a not ready for prime-time television. As I see it, if you admit it was a failure (which he has), what lesson did he learn from this and how will this impact him if he is the Govenor.

When it came to taxes, Gansler wants to cut them for small business by closing a corporate tax loop hole. Poplar however gives few details. Brown’s answer is nuanced. He’d like to look at cutting taxes. Admits he was not a fan of the Governor’s position to reduce Estate Taxes (sometimes referred to as Death Taxes). Brown didn’t like that it was carved out for a small group, mostly millionaires. Mizeur, sees the legalization of marijuana as the panacea. He’s I how described this exchange on Twitter, “Are taxes 2 high n MD? A lot of I want to do this & I'm going to…can we be competitive w/VA.”

Yes, the candidates hit on areas of the environment, housing, and job creation. While important this is dialogue which can’t go on forever. Debates allow us to reinforce our image of a selected candidate, it can also raise doubts about our choices. These aren’t neatly crafted one minute vignettes with soothing/ominous music in the background. These are adults asking for your vote. A debate is never the last word but, the beginning of a conversation that each of us has when we step into a voting booth to decide who and how we be led for the next four years.

To see the debate you can find it below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idbpOPHUf0w

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For All the Marbles

(Largo, MD) On a sweltering Friday afternoon in May, Maryland Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown surrounded by family, friends, and supporters stepped out of the Governor’s shadow and had the spotlight.  Brown, the former member of the House of Delegates, announced his intention to seek the Democratic nomination for Governor.

Using Prince George’s County Community College as his backdrop Brown had nearly 300 people on hand to validate his support.  Holding "Brown for Governor" signs, it was a cross section of the county. There were young and old, Blacks, Whites, those from the Asian, African, and Indian Diaspora in the crowd.  There were a number of members of the legislature including State Senators Thomas V. “Mike” Miller and Ulysses Currie, Delegates Veronica Turner, James Proctor, and Darren Swain and Maryland Congresswoman Donna Edwards (MIA, Prince George's Co. Exe. Rushern Baker). 

Representative Edwards is under no pretense on appealing to constituencies outside of your comfort zone. She was with Brown several weeks ago in Western Maryland when he came in first place in a straw poll. It’s an unlikely place to go looking for voters, “look there are Democrats in Western Maryland.”

Expected to join Brown in the race for the Democratic nominee may be as many three other politicians. They may include current Attorney General Douglass Gansler, Howard County Executive, Ken Ulman, Delegate Heather Mizeur, and Congressman C.A. “Dutch” Ruppersberger. The winner of the Democratic primary normally has an easy path in the General Election with Democrats holding nearly a two to one margin over Republicans.

With his early announcement the Lieutenant Governor has the opportunity to shape this race.  Brown hit on accomplishments. He talked about his signature achievement of creating the health insurance exchange. Despite this, the crowd really wanted to know “What can you do for me now?”  He pointed to states school system being rank number one in the nation, but that accomplishment fails to win fans in the Washington suburb. Why because Prince George’s is either in last place or next to last place in state school jurisdictions.  “It’s not enough to have best school system in county unless every child in Maryland whether they are from Capital Heights or Chevy Chase gets a world class education. “ The crowd showed their approval with applause.

The Base

Taking care of your base is key. You must start with the folks you know. Delegate Swain who was appointed to a seat vacated by Delegate Justin Ready reaffirmed why he was supporting Brown, “he knows the issues.” Swain understands why coming out early is important. It's about the fundraising (Gansler has $5.2 mil in the bank) and getting people to endorse your candidacy. According to Swain, Brown has to answer a simple question for supporters ”Am I worthy of an investment?" The Prince George’s delegate is part of a unique cadre of supporters who know about long odds. Several of his friends reminded him of the campaign to get Wayne Curry to be the first African American County Executive; they equated that campaign to this campaign.  

Although Senate President Miller was in attendance to support a fellow Prince Georgian this was not an endorsement as several Brown aides reminded me. This however was a “stamp of approval and qualification” according to them.

Problems and Potential Hiccups

It was impressive to see the number of supporters in the crowd at the Community College. There were several key constituencies missing at this rally. Where were Baltimore City, Howard and Montgomery County politicians? Where were the Business leaders of the state? Maybe they are waiting until he shows up in their backyards to stand with the candidate. You would think some of them would be with him every step of the way.

Is the state ready to elect its first Black governor?  There are still portions of Maryland that find the concept both foreign and unacceptable. Others will question why that subject is on the table to begin with. The number of conservative Democrats in the state is diminishing. You really can’t worry about those who will not vote for you, but you must maximize your voters. I’m hoping the ugliness of racism is buried, but I doubt it.

Living on the legacy of your predecessor is good way to start. Members of the GOP have been hammering the governor on his varied programs from the last legislative session (repeal of the death penalty, gun registration, gas tax increase and other initiatives). The governor has been confident that he’s right and won the day. I’m not certain if he’s awoke a sleeping giant, but he’s definitely got a lot of them “fired up.”(I saw them daily in Annapolis.) The numbers don’t bode well for an attempt to change the political narrative.

I personally discounted the rumor of a Brown/Ulman ticket. My sources tell me the Howard County Executive has setup an extensive campaign group which believes it has a better than average chance of becoming the Democratic gubernatorial nominee. Observers acknowledge however that a pairing of this nature would be "a slam dunk," In talking with Brown observers they smiled at the suggestion. One even suggested the early poll numbers show Ulman has little chance of gaining ground because of name recognition. This puts Brown and Ulman in the same quandary, name recognition. You can change the formula by buying name recognition or being at the right place at the right time (coming out first definitely benefits, but is it sustainable). 

Brown is as squeaky clean as they come. He wasn't a party to the varied politicians in the county who were linked to scandal (Jack Johnson). His closest brush with any impropriety came in his divorce to his first wife. It happened during his first term as Lieutenant Governor. It was quietly done without the ugly innuendos which  have plagued other politicians. He has since remarried and takes care of his own children and the son of his current wife.

Jealousy

The Black political power center in the state has always been Baltimore. The largest urban district in the state began laying the foundation for this in the 50’s with the Mitchell’s and others. Prince Georges came to the party in the 70's after a sizable portion of the county had been invaded by transplanted Washingtonians. Those from the Washington suburb often talk about election of County Executive Wayne Curry as changing the tide.

If you asked seasoned politic veterans where the first Black Gubernatorial candidate would emerge I think they would have point to “Bmore/Charm City.” But that’s not the case with Brown. Brown’s resume has a number of pluses including his time in the Iraq, and being selected by then Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley to be his running mate. Brown has one major problem he isn't home grown. He grew up in Long Island, NY. Does that disqualify you?

So why didn’t the political operatives in Baltimore groom someone for the state’s highest office? If you ask Anthony White, a member of the Governor’s cabinet and working on the Brown campaign; he talks about “power.” “Clarence Blount and Howard “Pete” Rawlings,” both of Baltimore, knew they would never be able to be governor, but because of the way the Governor has to submit his budget to the legislature that’s where the real power is.” They became chairmen of the committee’s, appointed members of the Baltimore delegation to committees, and became indispensable to anyone wanting to win the region statewide. “Jealousy! Oh yeah, there will be some,” says White, but he knows those are few and supporters of Brown will fall inline.

There are  at least five questions the Lieutenant Governor needs to answer. I don't want be a presumptuous enough to tell him how to answer the questions.

1.       Will his early jump out the gate provide dividends i.e. money and support when he really needs it?

2.       Can he build a core of supporters outside of Prince George’s County?

3.       Is he a living legacy of Martin O’Malley or is he his own man that will chart a different path?

4.       Will the state power brokers see him as the leader of the state/party and endorse him prior to the primary?

5.       Can he break curse that no Lieutenant Governor has ever succeed to become Governor.  

  

“Get ready to make Maryland better,” said the Gubernatorial candidate to the applause of the crowd. Then with what has become standard fare for politicians he waded into the crowd to shake hands.  The candidate will make stops in Baltimore City, and Howard and Montgomery Counties over the weekend and with that the race to become Maryland’s governor has begun.