Searching for Ms. Mabel: Observations on the Maryland Primary for Governor

(Baltimore, MD) The days, the ads, and candidates have made their case. Maryland for all of its “purpleness” is still a “Blue State.” With the election of Governor, a Senator, Congress persons, a Comptroller and members of the legislature (not to mention local races) there should be tons of reason to participate in the process. There is a “lack luster” feel to this primary except for the billboards, mailers, the radio/online ads and TV ads. The faithful have already cast their ballots. Those who are waiting for primary day (Tuesday, 19 July 2022) either procrastinated or are traditionalist (I vote on Election Day.)

The Maryland State Board of Election (MDSBE) already knows as of July 15, 2022, 182,035 voters have casted ballots. This does not include the number of mail-in ballots. According to the MDSBE, those ballots won’t be counted until 7/21 – 29. In a word a delay. Those numbers come close to past cycles, but it means the margins for winnings will be close.

Baltimore Central Baptist Usher Board

Looking for Ms. Mabel

For each of these candidates I have suggested they look for Ms. Mabel (and yes I have asked several if they know who she is and where to find her). This voter is a real person. You can find her in church on Sunday. She is likely to greet you if you come to her church. “Welcome, to Mount Calvary Church of God in Christ/The Evangelista Guadalupe Church/The Holy Church of the Redeemer Catholic Church.”

As she takes you to your pew, she is likely to be dressed in all white with gloves, and a fan. “It’s so nice to have you join us for service today,” says Ms. Mabel. Unbeknownst, to you and your handlers, Ms. Mabel is a widow. Her husband served in World II or Vietnam. She is retired and secure in her faith.

Appold United Methodist Church

“So young man/woman, why are you here today?” The logical person will go straight political. “I’m running for office and I want your vote!” This will not work on Ms. Mabel.

Your answer should be, “I am here to worship the lord. I want you to know this won’t be the last time you will see me. By the third time I come back, I hope you will know me. I hope you will be confident enough to allow me to ask for your vote.” Her reply is, simple, “that’s nice.”

You have planted a seed. It can pay dividends, but only if you follow through. Her reach is enormous. Not only does she serve on the usher board, the ladies auxiliary, and the church Foundation Board. She has more influence then the pastor.

In Maryland, never discount the power of the pulpit and Ms. Mabel if you want to chance of winning.

Observations

When this primary season began there were very few obvious front runners. Those who claimed to be in that camp told me “this is my race to lose.” A number of factors play into why one decides to take the leap to “run for office.” Lining up supporters, fundraising, assessing the field are just a few of items you need to have in place.

Far be it from me to discount those with national experience in running campaigns. In Maryland, those who have not spent time on the ground can’t answer some simple questions.

1.       All Black voters in this state are same?

2.       There’s no differences between Latino and Hispanic votes in Baltimore and DC Metro area?

3.       Do know where Maryland City, Deale, Ocean Pines, and Sideling Hill are located in Maryland?

4.       You know all Black Republican voters are “Uncle Toms” or Democrats never vote for Republicans?

5.       Wedge issues of race, sex, gender, and class are the keys to winning Maryland?

These answers won’t get you where you need to be…but have someone on your team who can answer these questions without going to “Google” will give you a clue.

The Democratic Field

Early in this process it was clear the Maryland Democratic Party had not cultivated enough women to run for office. It was apparent in the Governor’s race. It took months for Laura Neuman, a former Anne Arundel Count Executive. The Neuman switched from the Republican Party to Democratic Party to join a crowded field. She didn’t last long after raising $109,000 in three weeks. She would throw her support to Peter Franchot, the state’s Comptroller, the considered frontrunner.

At one of the first events to showcase the contenders was the “Democratic Backyard Bash” held in Upper Marlboro. For an outside observer, the favorite question was, “Who is that?” “What office are they running for?” Early on any kind of traction is important.

A number of the candidates call Montgomery County home. They include Franchot, Tom Perez, John King, Doug Gansler, and Ashwani Jain. Montgomery Counties population is changing. The area around DC Metro (Silver Spring-population US Census- 81,069/Rockville- population US Census-68,155/Bethesda – population US Census- 65,092)has an influx of immigrants. The traditional home owner has been replaced by renters.  Sounds of salsa and dialects (Portuguese/Spanish) from South America permeate this community.

The county is also home to some of the most expensive real estate in the state (Potomac – population US Census - 46,256). There is also a large contingent of federal employees and retirees who call “Leisure World” home (Rossmoor – population US Census -  9,215). Based on census data there are 269,787 voters up for grabs.

My observation, no one has clear path to grabbing a majority. This means the Montgomery County candidates will have to marry voters from other jurisdictions in order to have a chance. This will include Prince Georges, Howard, Anne Arundel, and Baltimore Counites.

Endorsements

There are some solid endorsements which can turn into votes. It includes and not limited to unions and teachers. They turn out their base and are seen as a stamp of approval. The AFSCME endorsement went to Tom Perez who was the former Labor Secretary. To a surprise of many, first time candidate, Wes Moore, snagged the teachers endorsement from Franchot.

There are number of other endorsements which other candidates will “crow as feathers in their caps.” The candidate’s endorsement can be found on their websites, which I don’t need to rehash.

Newspaper Endorsements

This can be tricky. The two largest newspapers in the state, The Baltimore Sun , and the Washington Post have weighed in. Each have chosen Tom Perez as their candidate. While they have made cogent arguments as to why. I noticed that neither paper picked an African-American candidate for state wide office. How should I interpret this? Are these media groups “gun shy” because the last two Democratic nominees were Black and shellacked by a Republican Governor. I would offer up they were flawed, in ways which I outlined in an earlier post (funding/not originally from Maryland/getting your base to the polls).

A number of polls show this is a three-person race between Franchot, Moore, and Perez. Turnout will win the day. I believe the person who can get more than 450,000 voters to the polls will win the day.

FYI, race will be factor, no mater who wins in the General Election (we are in a polarized environment). 

GOP Candidates

Despite a crowded field this is a two-person race in the Republican Party, Kelly Schulz and Dan Cox. Each are trying to replace Governor Larry Hogan. The endorsement by Governor Hogan of Schulz was expected and is a plus, but will it be enough? Cox has the endorsement of former president Donald Trump.

There is strong support for Trump within the Maryland GOP. The anti-Trump wing of the GOP supports Hogan along with a number of “Blue-Dog Democrats.” This is a problem. Democrats can’t vote in a closed primary.

I have interviewed each of the front-runners. They have an affinity for the state, but have different approaches.

Kelly Schulz

Schulz, a Hogan administration member, knows the ropes of state government. A good thing to have, but voters are looking for your “bona-fides.” The former defense contractor lives in Frederick, MD. She was born in Michigan. She has worked, raised a family, and gotten her degree from St. Mary’s College. What intrigues me about the only female candidate is how she has re-envisioned her life. There are few candidates willing to share she got pregnant which forced her to drop out of school.  She came to Maryland and came up the hard way working in a bar, taking night classes while taking her boys to hockey practices.

The most recent sighting of Schulz had her in the Walbrook Junction neighborhood of Baltimore City. Doni Glover of BmoreNews.com questioned her commitment to people with drug additions in Baltimore City. “I think it goes back to treating criminals like criminals not having consequences to illegal actions,” according to the Republican candidate.

 Members of the GOP have used drug addiction in the suburbs as an urgent action, but did they forget suburbanites get their drugs from urban centers. Oh wait, it’s about crime, which plays well.

With a significant “political war chest” this should be “cake walk.” Members of the Schulz Team are concerned. How do I know? I am getting bombard by emails, ads, and mailers. The Schultz Team is leaving nothing to chance.

 Dan Cox

Cox, is a “died in the wool Maryland Republican.” He endorsed Hogan initially, but split with him on his approach to COVID-19. This made him a hero to Trump who gave him an endorsement. According to Cox, “my campaign is about freedom.” This is innocuous to all but loyal GOP members. It is a mantra a number of MAGA members have adopted. As best as I can ascertain, it’s about the freedom to do what you want, when you want, how you want. Its protecting liberty, it’s making sure you have the tools to fight crime (more police), and making sure any policy which would expand the rights of people who don’t share your values are stopped before they can influence others who are like you.

You aren’t likely to hear from those who support Cox because they see you as the enemy. They will refer you to their campaign website. Asked about a schism in the Republican Party and he pointed to Hogan “oppressing Maryland citizens” during the COVID-19 crisis. This came during his endorsement announcement from Trump. In that curious moment, a gust of wind knocked down an American flag which flanked him and his running mate.

There is an interesting machine providing a lot of the anti-Cox rhetoric. It includes a number of former Hogan operatives. Douglass Mayer is advising the Schulz Campaign. Mayer, said this,  “Dan Cox is what happens when crazy meets stupid. A person who believes…the Chinese Communist Party has infiltrated MD state government. He is not a rational actor."

Cox is not phased by these comments. Here’s what I do know and have seen. As you travel to the Eastern shore or Western Maryland you’re like to see more Dan Cox signs on the major and minor roadways. Polls show this is a close race. Add a TV media buy the Democratic Governors Association in the waning moments linking Cox to Trump has the Shulz Campaign upset.

The upset would be if Cox bests Schulz in the primary. It would shake up a potential run for president by Governor Larry Hogan.

Charles F. Robinson, III

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Can You Teach Me How To Dougie?

(Annapolis, MD) There are some names in Maryland Politics who are ground breakers. Doug Mayer is one them. You may not know the name but he was a part of Governor Larry Hogan’s communications team. When it was time for re-election, Mayer became Deputy Campaign Manager focused on strategy and messaging. Say what you will, it was effective and ushered in a stunning defeat of a Democratic candidate.

So what’s he up to these days? He is a partner in Strategic Partners & Media, an Annapolis based firm. In addition to its political client list (which isn’t just based in Maryland) they also are doing public relations for a number of corporate clients. We drill down on the Governor’s popularity and how he was able to use Facebook to his advantage. The “new media guru” talks about the governor’s last week of campaign ads. These included a number of individuals who you wouldn’t likely expect to endorse a Republican candidate. I learned a new term in this political landscape, “permission ads.”

Is the Governor Running for President?

Governor Hogan is in Des Moines, Iowa for the National Governors Association's, "Good Jobs for All Americans," Regional Workshop (3/4-5/2019). So you know I had to ask the question, “Is Larry Hogan running for President?” The message is clear, “he hasn’t ruled it out.” Mayer gives insight on Maryland’s chief executive thinking.

In a wide ranging interview Mayer talks about his time as communications chief and strategy.

Just click here, Doug Mayer Live from the Pit.

I didn’t get chance to ask if can dance, but I know he is a “hip-hop head.” I bet he can do the Dougie.

Maryland is Different

(Owings Mills, MD) “I’m going to vote for Jealous, but I know he is going to lose,” is a sentiment I heard often while covering the Maryland Gubernatorial election of 2018. But after that, the people who would tell me who they voted for made this admission, “I want to send a message,” that’s what I heard.

This was a message election which spilled into the state. It manifested itself with early voting, was it enough? Trump’s name wasn’t on the ballot, but he was on their minds. I jokingly said, “Will Maryland have an Ocean City Wave, a Blue Wave or a Tsunami.” Turnout was the key. Democratic nominee Ben Jealous said as much when he came to Maryland Public Television prior to General Election.  “If we (Jealous Campaign) can have a million voter’s turnout for the election I have a chance.”

Wishful thinking or shrewd strategy? Looking back at the Jealous and Gov. Larry Hogan campaigns they had different goals. For Governor Hogan, it was about not expending more cash or energy than necessary, limit debate opportunities, play to strengths, and have a closing argument which could have coattails.

For Jealous it was about nationalizing the race, maximizing voter turnout in the democratic strongholds and paint the governor as an extremist.

Each man used different methods to reach their goals, but there can only be one winner.

Governor Hogan had to expend little energy during the Republican primary. He ran ads touting his accomplishments and laying the foundation for a second term. The Governor thought his Democratic challenger would be Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker. Baker was the choice of the establishment Democratic Party in the state. The Prince George’s County candidates name recognition was limited to the Washington suburbs, so he spent an inordinate time in the Baltimore metro area. What he was unprepared for was the Jealous’ ground game. Jealous also defined himself via TV ads. The Republican Governors Association wasted no time airing ads right after his nomination in the general election. Jealous had no money left to counter being defined as “extreme and a socialist.”

What Larry Hogan Got Right

Governor Hogan’s rise to the top came at time when Maryland voters were tired of democratic control of state. The political novice was and is shrewd. In a two to one democratic state Hogan knew using a national Republican playbook was not going to work. While surrounding states (Virginia, New Jersey, West Virginia and Pennsylvania) had trended to the GOP, he knew it wasn’t going to work. Instead his idea was to appeal to the “every-man” idea. What I am talking about is Hogan was the kind of guy who you might have a beer with in a bar. I like to call him, the “Aw shucks Governor.” He also rejected Republican touchstone issues (abortion, school choice etc…) to prove it, he bucked the national party and only embrace New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s model. Governor Christie’s tactic of lowering taxes, ending bureaucracy, and becoming business friendly. The catch phrase of his first campaign was “ending the rain tax.” A populist move that few could disagree with.

Once in office he found his perfect foil, the Maryland Legislature. With super majorities he could run against them calling them obstructionist. But what put Hogan over the top, was sympathy he received after being diagnosed with cancer. Despite being in the hospital receiving chemotherapy Hogan spent hours doing work from his hospital bed. This lead to a nearly 60 percent approval rating in a “blue state.”

He also found an issue which crossed party lines, the opioid crisis. Look, heroin addiction has been in Maryland since the 1920’s. It was confined to inner city Baltimore. Hundreds were hooked on the drug and help fuel a crime wave to feed a habit from the 60’s through the 70’s.

When the drug came to the suburbs in the 80’s and 90’s killing white kids and adults it was serious for this politician. It was a dirty little secret no was paying attention to and wasn’t just affecting major population areas but was an epidemic in places like Cumberland, Hagerstown, and Frederick, Washington, Carroll, Cecil and Queen Anne’s Counties. These jurisdictions saw people turn to the heroin because they were unable to keep up with their OxyContin dependencies. I was initially suspect. It changed when Governor Hogan, said he was personally affected when a cousin overdosed after years of addiction.

Under the radar Governor Hogan through his Lieutenant Governor Boyd Rutherford cultivated something the Maryland Democratic Party never embraced, Black Business. Despite years of “lip service,” minority set asides had gone from hard targets to simply goals. The whole idea of the state having minority vendors had become a mess. This entrepreneurial class has embraced anyone who would listen to their plight and actually make a difference. Enter the Maryland GOP. The governor’s embrace of a “business first mentality” was perfect for this group. African-American entrepreneurs are lukewarm to embrace the party’s social policies, but they are “all in” on getting a seat at the table. They ended up having this group to themselves.

 

So why are 30 percent of African-American voters drawn to Governor Hogan? This group was half this size in his first run. They are collection of voters who are discussed at the idea "Democrats have Black people’s interest at heart." You saw this at the end of the O’Malley administration, when the idea of locking people up (mostly African-Americans) for nuisance crimes was policy in Baltimore. Add to this disinvestment in communities of color. The “Baltimore Uprising” was literally the last straw and how former Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings Blake was nowhere to be found during at its height. They may have whispered their support in the past, but now you see it. The Leaders of a Beautiful Struggle sided with Hogan in his first run. The closing political ad featuring Bmore News founder, Doni Glover, saying “Governor Hogan showed up and it wasn’t his first time.” The ad laid bare and full view of an anti-establishment critic endorsement.

Shhh, Ben Jealous is Running for Maryland Governor.

In a crowded primary field Ben Jealous was the perfect “I’m not a politician candidate.” The problem is this type of candidacy would have worked four years ago, but was an anathema in an era which gave us President Donald Trump. Was he qualified? His turnaround of the national office of the NAACP was laudable, but no one had ever voted for him for anything. It is true all politics are local. 

So a surrogate for Presidential candidate Bernie Saunders national campaign saw a clear path to victory by nationalizing a gubernatorial race and its disgust with Washington, DC. It worked in the primary enabling Jealous to raise money outside the state. This allowed him to be the first up with television with ads, allowing him to define himself.

What Maryland politicians saw and understood from this, “he didn’t need them.” Great for an insurgent campaign but not for coalescing the state’s power brokers to embrace your run.  Its manifestation came in what can be best described as “non-endorsements.” Hogan trotted out a number of former Democratic leaders to endorse his campaign (most were people who were beyond their expiration date). You know it’s telling when the states Comptroller Peter Franchot says, he “will not endorse you, but not campaign against you.” (What the hell?).

Even more telling after the primary, Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker delays embracing your campaign and Montgomery County Executive Ike Leggit questions your platform of “Medicaid for All.” Leggit asks, "How will pay for it?  Stop. These are two leading African-American leaders in the state (Baltimore Mayor Catherine Pugh is the other) and they are already questioning your policies in the state (In my ESPN voice “C’mon Man!).

Race is a delicate issue. Some politicians use it to their advantage, others discount it and lay claim to being the best candidate in the race. Jealous is a product of a bi-racial marriage. His parents were forced to move to California where he grew up but spent his summers in Baltimore with his grandparents (Hogan suggested he didn’t live in the state but he does).His time at the NAACP has gave him a close up look at the "mean and nasty" regarding race. Nowhere did he ever embrace the notion of being the first African-American governor of the state of Maryland and what it would mean. It was understood internally it would turn off white voters embracing his campaign.

Crying you’re "being treated unfairly" is not a political strategy. The Jealous organization to counter being out spent tried to go around the ads defining him to the public. News organizations love an underdog story.  So we often want to hear your thoughts about scurrilous claims. On August 8, 2018, Washington Post Political Reporter Erin Cox asked Jealous “Whether he identified with the term “socialist,” as his political opponent, Gov. Larry Hogan (R), has labeled him. ‘Are you f---ing kidding me?,’ Jealous responded.” This was an endorsement event, and left those in attendance with mouths open.

Look these are challenges a traditional campaign would have thought through. This is big boy politics where your narrative is key and people have to see themselves in you. During this campaign I did not see an air of “desperation.” Politicians who I’ve seen be successful have this sense they are losing and must talk to everyone who will listen. Those who won’t listen to you still reach out them because you can believe you can persuade them. If you don’t persuade them they must come away with an idea that you are competent.

The Debates

Fast forward to the debate/s. My office Maryland Public Television MPT has a stellar reputation as being the host for statewide debates. I was fortunate to be selected to be a part of the Democrat Primary debate at the Reginald F. Lewis Museum. During this session I got candidate Jealous to admit how he was going to pay for “Free College Tuition.” “I’m going to tax the highest ten percent tax payers in the state.”

As we awaited word on the General Election debate Governor Hogan announced he would do two debates in September. Jealous countered with having five in October. In the end we were left with just one debate at MPT on September 24, 2018. The planning for the debate was coordinated by the two campaigns (sitting or standing, how close the podiums will be, opening/closing statements). It was agreed there would be five panelist. Both camps were given a single veto over who could be a questioner. This is where things get tricky.   Both camps were concerned about previous questioners in the primary (including yours truly, Jane Miller – WBAL-TV, and Clarence Mitchell IV WBAL Radio). We were out. It was agreed to have two the leading newspapers in the state participate but the Hogan camp insisted that there be a reporter from the Eastern Shore and Western Maryland. Earlier during the campaign it didn’t help that Jealous had to retract several debate decisions.

He suggested that Tamela Baker of the Herald-Mail in Hagerstown should be remove. He ended up retracting the idea. Not a good look. He also suggested Maryland Reporter.com was a right-wing website. Hmmm! That’s a stretch.

So where do we go from here? My quick assessment is this will be the last time Democrats in Maryland nominate a Black candidate. The failure to deliver in two elections cycles is telling. I don’t think this will be the right choice but it will send the message.

Lastly, for the next four years the GOP will expand the landscape in Maryland. Here’s the rub, "who is waiting in the wings."

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