Maryland is Different

(Owings Mills, MD) “I’m going to vote for Jealous, but I know he is going to lose,” is a sentiment I heard often while covering the Maryland Gubernatorial election of 2018. But after that, the people who would tell me who they voted for made this admission, “I want to send a message,” that’s what I heard.

This was a message election which spilled into the state. It manifested itself with early voting, was it enough? Trump’s name wasn’t on the ballot, but he was on their minds. I jokingly said, “Will Maryland have an Ocean City Wave, a Blue Wave or a Tsunami.” Turnout was the key. Democratic nominee Ben Jealous said as much when he came to Maryland Public Television prior to General Election.  “If we (Jealous Campaign) can have a million voter’s turnout for the election I have a chance.”

Wishful thinking or shrewd strategy? Looking back at the Jealous and Gov. Larry Hogan campaigns they had different goals. For Governor Hogan, it was about not expending more cash or energy than necessary, limit debate opportunities, play to strengths, and have a closing argument which could have coattails.

For Jealous it was about nationalizing the race, maximizing voter turnout in the democratic strongholds and paint the governor as an extremist.

Each man used different methods to reach their goals, but there can only be one winner.

Governor Hogan had to expend little energy during the Republican primary. He ran ads touting his accomplishments and laying the foundation for a second term. The Governor thought his Democratic challenger would be Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker. Baker was the choice of the establishment Democratic Party in the state. The Prince George’s County candidates name recognition was limited to the Washington suburbs, so he spent an inordinate time in the Baltimore metro area. What he was unprepared for was the Jealous’ ground game. Jealous also defined himself via TV ads. The Republican Governors Association wasted no time airing ads right after his nomination in the general election. Jealous had no money left to counter being defined as “extreme and a socialist.”

What Larry Hogan Got Right

Governor Hogan’s rise to the top came at time when Maryland voters were tired of democratic control of state. The political novice was and is shrewd. In a two to one democratic state Hogan knew using a national Republican playbook was not going to work. While surrounding states (Virginia, New Jersey, West Virginia and Pennsylvania) had trended to the GOP, he knew it wasn’t going to work. Instead his idea was to appeal to the “every-man” idea. What I am talking about is Hogan was the kind of guy who you might have a beer with in a bar. I like to call him, the “Aw shucks Governor.” He also rejected Republican touchstone issues (abortion, school choice etc…) to prove it, he bucked the national party and only embrace New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s model. Governor Christie’s tactic of lowering taxes, ending bureaucracy, and becoming business friendly. The catch phrase of his first campaign was “ending the rain tax.” A populist move that few could disagree with.

Once in office he found his perfect foil, the Maryland Legislature. With super majorities he could run against them calling them obstructionist. But what put Hogan over the top, was sympathy he received after being diagnosed with cancer. Despite being in the hospital receiving chemotherapy Hogan spent hours doing work from his hospital bed. This lead to a nearly 60 percent approval rating in a “blue state.”

He also found an issue which crossed party lines, the opioid crisis. Look, heroin addiction has been in Maryland since the 1920’s. It was confined to inner city Baltimore. Hundreds were hooked on the drug and help fuel a crime wave to feed a habit from the 60’s through the 70’s.

When the drug came to the suburbs in the 80’s and 90’s killing white kids and adults it was serious for this politician. It was a dirty little secret no was paying attention to and wasn’t just affecting major population areas but was an epidemic in places like Cumberland, Hagerstown, and Frederick, Washington, Carroll, Cecil and Queen Anne’s Counties. These jurisdictions saw people turn to the heroin because they were unable to keep up with their OxyContin dependencies. I was initially suspect. It changed when Governor Hogan, said he was personally affected when a cousin overdosed after years of addiction.

Under the radar Governor Hogan through his Lieutenant Governor Boyd Rutherford cultivated something the Maryland Democratic Party never embraced, Black Business. Despite years of “lip service,” minority set asides had gone from hard targets to simply goals. The whole idea of the state having minority vendors had become a mess. This entrepreneurial class has embraced anyone who would listen to their plight and actually make a difference. Enter the Maryland GOP. The governor’s embrace of a “business first mentality” was perfect for this group. African-American entrepreneurs are lukewarm to embrace the party’s social policies, but they are “all in” on getting a seat at the table. They ended up having this group to themselves.

 

So why are 30 percent of African-American voters drawn to Governor Hogan? This group was half this size in his first run. They are collection of voters who are discussed at the idea "Democrats have Black people’s interest at heart." You saw this at the end of the O’Malley administration, when the idea of locking people up (mostly African-Americans) for nuisance crimes was policy in Baltimore. Add to this disinvestment in communities of color. The “Baltimore Uprising” was literally the last straw and how former Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings Blake was nowhere to be found during at its height. They may have whispered their support in the past, but now you see it. The Leaders of a Beautiful Struggle sided with Hogan in his first run. The closing political ad featuring Bmore News founder, Doni Glover, saying “Governor Hogan showed up and it wasn’t his first time.” The ad laid bare and full view of an anti-establishment critic endorsement.

Shhh, Ben Jealous is Running for Maryland Governor.

In a crowded primary field Ben Jealous was the perfect “I’m not a politician candidate.” The problem is this type of candidacy would have worked four years ago, but was an anathema in an era which gave us President Donald Trump. Was he qualified? His turnaround of the national office of the NAACP was laudable, but no one had ever voted for him for anything. It is true all politics are local. 

So a surrogate for Presidential candidate Bernie Saunders national campaign saw a clear path to victory by nationalizing a gubernatorial race and its disgust with Washington, DC. It worked in the primary enabling Jealous to raise money outside the state. This allowed him to be the first up with television with ads, allowing him to define himself.

What Maryland politicians saw and understood from this, “he didn’t need them.” Great for an insurgent campaign but not for coalescing the state’s power brokers to embrace your run.  Its manifestation came in what can be best described as “non-endorsements.” Hogan trotted out a number of former Democratic leaders to endorse his campaign (most were people who were beyond their expiration date). You know it’s telling when the states Comptroller Peter Franchot says, he “will not endorse you, but not campaign against you.” (What the hell?).

Even more telling after the primary, Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker delays embracing your campaign and Montgomery County Executive Ike Leggit questions your platform of “Medicaid for All.” Leggit asks, "How will pay for it?  Stop. These are two leading African-American leaders in the state (Baltimore Mayor Catherine Pugh is the other) and they are already questioning your policies in the state (In my ESPN voice “C’mon Man!).

Race is a delicate issue. Some politicians use it to their advantage, others discount it and lay claim to being the best candidate in the race. Jealous is a product of a bi-racial marriage. His parents were forced to move to California where he grew up but spent his summers in Baltimore with his grandparents (Hogan suggested he didn’t live in the state but he does).His time at the NAACP has gave him a close up look at the "mean and nasty" regarding race. Nowhere did he ever embrace the notion of being the first African-American governor of the state of Maryland and what it would mean. It was understood internally it would turn off white voters embracing his campaign.

Crying you’re "being treated unfairly" is not a political strategy. The Jealous organization to counter being out spent tried to go around the ads defining him to the public. News organizations love an underdog story.  So we often want to hear your thoughts about scurrilous claims. On August 8, 2018, Washington Post Political Reporter Erin Cox asked Jealous “Whether he identified with the term “socialist,” as his political opponent, Gov. Larry Hogan (R), has labeled him. ‘Are you f---ing kidding me?,’ Jealous responded.” This was an endorsement event, and left those in attendance with mouths open.

Look these are challenges a traditional campaign would have thought through. This is big boy politics where your narrative is key and people have to see themselves in you. During this campaign I did not see an air of “desperation.” Politicians who I’ve seen be successful have this sense they are losing and must talk to everyone who will listen. Those who won’t listen to you still reach out them because you can believe you can persuade them. If you don’t persuade them they must come away with an idea that you are competent.

The Debates

Fast forward to the debate/s. My office Maryland Public Television MPT has a stellar reputation as being the host for statewide debates. I was fortunate to be selected to be a part of the Democrat Primary debate at the Reginald F. Lewis Museum. During this session I got candidate Jealous to admit how he was going to pay for “Free College Tuition.” “I’m going to tax the highest ten percent tax payers in the state.”

As we awaited word on the General Election debate Governor Hogan announced he would do two debates in September. Jealous countered with having five in October. In the end we were left with just one debate at MPT on September 24, 2018. The planning for the debate was coordinated by the two campaigns (sitting or standing, how close the podiums will be, opening/closing statements). It was agreed there would be five panelist. Both camps were given a single veto over who could be a questioner. This is where things get tricky.   Both camps were concerned about previous questioners in the primary (including yours truly, Jane Miller – WBAL-TV, and Clarence Mitchell IV WBAL Radio). We were out. It was agreed to have two the leading newspapers in the state participate but the Hogan camp insisted that there be a reporter from the Eastern Shore and Western Maryland. Earlier during the campaign it didn’t help that Jealous had to retract several debate decisions.

He suggested that Tamela Baker of the Herald-Mail in Hagerstown should be remove. He ended up retracting the idea. Not a good look. He also suggested Maryland Reporter.com was a right-wing website. Hmmm! That’s a stretch.

So where do we go from here? My quick assessment is this will be the last time Democrats in Maryland nominate a Black candidate. The failure to deliver in two elections cycles is telling. I don’t think this will be the right choice but it will send the message.

Lastly, for the next four years the GOP will expand the landscape in Maryland. Here’s the rub, "who is waiting in the wings."

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What Maryland Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates Aren’t Talking About?

(Arlington, VA) – “Your Voice, Your Future,” was theme for the second Maryland Democratic Gubernatorial Debate. Held at the WJLA Channel 7/ News Channel 8, the Sinclair Broadcasting Groups, location in the Rosslyn section of Arlington (Wait, this debate for the Governor of Maryland is being held in Virginia?).

Unlike the previous debate which I personally participated in, this included Ralph Jaffe, a perennial candidate. Kia Jackson. the moderator, held a close grip on time with this large group. The candidates had a one minute opening statement but not a closing statement. A new twist was a 30 second rebuttal.  

Before I get into the quotes and arguments it is clear the televised the debates have focused a majority of time on Baltimore/Baltimore County issues. Left by the wayside are the varied pressing issues in Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore. Democrats have abandoned the party because of this and a number of them are supporting the Republican Governor (it’s borne out in polls).

Now for the lines and the attacks:

·         Once again Governor Larry Hogan is main focus of all the candidates.

• Racial tensions were the line of questioning from two of the panelist. How to solve this problem was varied. Memorable lines came from state Sen. Richard Madaleno, “hurt people, hurt.” Jim Shea, “we’ve allowed the extremes on both sides to take over conversations.” Alec Ross, “Before the justice system failed, the education system failed.”

·         The recent flooding in Ellicott City was a subject everyone coalesced around. Rebuilding the historic city was high on all the candidates’ agenda.

·         The attacks against the governor centered on education funding and how Governor Hogan went after jurisdictions lead by Democrats (Baltimore County, Baltimore City, Montgomery, and Prince Georges’ County).

·         A question about how much is spent on educating kids in Baltimore shifted the discussion. Quotes were all over the place. Valeria Erving, “We are not going to spend our way out of this problem.” Ben Jealous on the lack of funding, “Till we fully fund our schools…we will not be able see improvements.” Rushern Baker cut to the real issue, “When they say it’s not about money, it is.”

Here are couple of observations. Valerie Ervin says she has filed suit in Annapolis Circuit Court to get her name on the ballot. She received support from Alec Ross, Richard Jaffe, and a surprised endorsement from Ben Jealous. Ervin has accused Jealous of causing her to lose a job, and stopping Ervin from become a Lt. Governor candidate. 

Was pleasantly surprise to see Ervin looking more gubernatorial (dark rimmed glasses, white blazer, Black blouse and no “Black Girls Rock” button)?

At the time of the debate airing, the Washington Capitals will be playing the Golden Knights of Las Vegas. Pandering to that audience Senator Madaleno said he was a Capitals fan (no one else picked up on the idea).

Now back to this idea the debates have been Baltimore centric. Senator Madaleno, “I’ve tried to answer the questions from a statewide perspective.” “There is a reason for it,” says Baker, “Baltimore is the most important city in the state…no governor has approached Baltimore City the way Governor Hogan has. He acts like it doesn’t exist.”

Connecting to voters is key, some believe if we can solve Baltimore’s problems they will transfer to the state. Jealous suggests, “We have to solve the tough kitchen table issues affecting families.”

The large panels clearly aren’t allowing anyone to distinguish themselves. Those with the financial wherewithal are defining themselves via radio and television ads in the Baltimore metro area. It’s more expensive to do so in the Washington metro area.

Gauging the Democratic Gubernatorial Field in Maryland

Towson, MD - Live from the Pit, hit the road. On site at the Goucher College for the Young Voters Forum featuring the Democratic candidates who want to replace current Governor Larry Hogan (R). It's clear from Mileah Kromer, the Polling Director, for the Sarah T. Hughes Politics Center, Governor Hogan is popular (62%). The interesting part of her polling, should he continue as Governor drops to just under 50%. Why? She hopes to dig down on this issue in her next poll.

The Forum

So if you noticed from the picture, Rushern Baker, Prince Georges County Executive is not on the stage. Baker remains the front runner among most of the field. Each one of the candidates vying to lead the Democratic nominee has qualities you may like, conversely there are a number of challenges for each of these individuals. Let me suggest there is a lot of opposition research on each of them by the Hogan administration (not unusual). 

"Despite what you've heard we aren't only interested in legalization of marijuana," according to Ashely Alyward, a Goucher College student. It gets a giggle from the audience. As the candidates are peppered with questions, you realize there is more to this age group. There were solid questions about providing tax breaks for Amazon; the issue of day #MeToo was addressed; holding police accountable for wrongdoing; and student debt/college affordable. The answers were enlightening. This is still a strange feeling on the stage. In our current environment, having no experience seems to an asset. Those with experience must tread lightly. I still point to the visual, seven people on the stage looking for one job...to take on a popular governor.

Looking at trends in recent elections this would appear to be a good year for Democrats...maybe?

Take a listen to Live from the Pit with Mileah Kromer.

MDGA13

(Annapolis) "What will be our hashtag? How about..." and that's how it all began with reporters, veteran political observers and newcomers weighing in on the come and goings of all things politics in Annapolis.

Neutered was one outspoken politician, Delegate Don Dwyer of Glen Burnie, he faced DUI charges. Lurking around the edges was State Comptroller Peter Franchot who made no secret of his desire to run for governor (and then he took his name out of the race). We also learned that a fractured MDGOP was being split by those in congress and those in the legislature. Who could have predicted the Anne Arundel County Executive, John Leopold, with his red sweater vest had a trail of sex in a car at the Annapolis Mall and employees having to change catheter bags. Hanging over all of this was the Governors desire to seek a presidential run in 2016. Got all that.

My trusted colleagues in "the pit" we're up to the challenge. I'll release some press corp awards and political awards later in this blog.

Check the Score Card

With gambling off the table, (except for the fact table games are being introduced at the states casinos) this session was all about guns. Death Penalty and the passage of gas tax will have fare reaching implications. It was the rallies and the turnouts that most visible on gun issues. Proponents of tighter gun control pointed to a series of national tragedies, Newtown, Connecticut Shooting,  Aurora, Colorado  Movie Shooting, and the Congresswoman Gabby Gifford’s shooting. Urban legislators pointed to the countless shootings of youth. Rural legislators pointed to the second amendment right to bear arms. In the end one of the nation’s most restrictive gun ownership rules were imposed on Marylanders.

The Death Penalty in the state of Maryland has not been carried out since Republican Governor Robert Erhlich was in office. Efforts to repeal the death penalty have been consistent. Kirk Bloodsworth has been exhibit A for repeal. The Eastern Shore resident was wrongfully accused of First Degree murder. He was exonerated after DNA evidence proved he didn't commit the crime.  The governor was joined by the NAACP in calling for its repeal. To help facilitate the process a judicial committee member was replaced paving the way for it getting to the floor.

Who Controls the Schools?

Shhhh! If every school district pulls a “Baltimore,” it will likely be bondholders. The City of Baltimore needed money to replace an aging infrastructure that has outlived its effective date. The city is also dealing with a reduced student population.

The Superintendent, Dr. Andres’ Alonso made a pitch to city leaders that they get the state to agree to fund (read guarantee) the school system the same amount of money for next 10 years. The school system would go to the bond market and leverage the guarantee to ask for a billion dollars to fund construction. Guess what the state agreed to do it.

Okay, think about this, I'm a small jurisdiction that needs additional dollars, why don't I pull a "Baltimore." See the complication, a number of these types of deals and bondholders are holding the purse strings.

Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker has a thankless job in the state. He’s had to follow a predecessor who is in federal prison on corruption and bribery charges.

His school system is invariably ranked last or next to last. So what does he ask for? "Let me take over the system." The legislation to do so, comes in at the last minute, but the legislature giveth and taketh. They gave him the power to select a new Superintendent, but they limited his power to shape curriculum and impose wide ranging authority over school board.

The Business of the Legislature

I for one am glad we aren't dealing with a lot of these issues at the last minute like last year. Someone  obliviously decided to look at a clock. For the first time in many years there is no talk of a "Special Session."

Lastly, it has not been a good year for reporters and news organizations in the legislature. Doing more with less has been a mantra in the news business for a number of years. It hurts when I see colleagues go an papers close and reduce (The Examiner -closes Annapolis office, Maryland Gazette- will lose politics in its name and cuts 2 person staff in half, and David Hill, Washington Times leaves).

The Envelope Please

First the disclaimer, these awards are mine alone and no one was consulted about the names of awards or its recipients. So here we go.

The Bryan Sears Award for Why should I give a f...or sh...

Holly Nun, Maryland Gazette - some people would have thrown in the towel after being told you're it. Instead she was determined and made people cringe when she would say, "Can I ask you a question?"

Things Not Fit to Print, But Who Cares

Bryan Sears, Patch.com - Bryan has been bring it for years. He's on every PIO's "oh shit list."

Most Tweeted about things not related to politics

Robert Lang, WBAL - Lang will tell you what he's doing all day long from along the Ravens Parade Route, the O's score, and reporters favorite tweet when Mrs. Lang has baked cookies for the press corp.

Best Newcomer(s)

Kaustuv Basu – Hagerstown Herald Mail – He jumped into the process and found a number of great news stories from the western portion of the state.

Bethany Rodgers - Frederick News Post – like her many predecessors she kept grinding and was a quick learner.

How Long Do I Have to Work Here

John Wagner and  Aaron Davis, Washington Post – all their colleagues who’ve worked this beat have gone on to cover the Congress, White House and major Presidential Candidates (why are they still suffering).

The Most Sarcastic Wit in the Pit

Steve Lash- Daily Record – need some levity, he can bring it.

Political Awards

Most Likely to take advantage of Maryland’s Marijuana Laws

Senate President Mike Miller – How do I know because he said so.

Odd Person Out in Democratic Senate Caucus

Sen. James Brochin – he’s always on a fine line because of the conservative nature of his constituency.

Odd Person Out in Republican Senate Caucus

(no award – everyone was in lock step)

Give Me What I Want

Gov. Martin O’Malley

And yes our twitter session hashtag is #mdga13