Gauging the Democratic Gubernatorial Field in Maryland

Towson, MD - Live from the Pit, hit the road. On site at the Goucher College for the Young Voters Forum featuring the Democratic candidates who want to replace current Governor Larry Hogan (R). It's clear from Mileah Kromer, the Polling Director, for the Sarah T. Hughes Politics Center, Governor Hogan is popular (62%). The interesting part of her polling, should he continue as Governor drops to just under 50%. Why? She hopes to dig down on this issue in her next poll.

The Forum

So if you noticed from the picture, Rushern Baker, Prince Georges County Executive is not on the stage. Baker remains the front runner among most of the field. Each one of the candidates vying to lead the Democratic nominee has qualities you may like, conversely there are a number of challenges for each of these individuals. Let me suggest there is a lot of opposition research on each of them by the Hogan administration (not unusual). 

"Despite what you've heard we aren't only interested in legalization of marijuana," according to Ashely Alyward, a Goucher College student. It gets a giggle from the audience. As the candidates are peppered with questions, you realize there is more to this age group. There were solid questions about providing tax breaks for Amazon; the issue of day #MeToo was addressed; holding police accountable for wrongdoing; and student debt/college affordable. The answers were enlightening. This is still a strange feeling on the stage. In our current environment, having no experience seems to an asset. Those with experience must tread lightly. I still point to the visual, seven people on the stage looking for one job...to take on a popular governor.

Looking at trends in recent elections this would appear to be a good year for Democrats...maybe?

Take a listen to Live from the Pit with Mileah Kromer.

The Push

 (Arlington, Virginia) – They avoided the Maryland Health Exchange in the first debate but at News Channel 8 in Arlington, Virginia it was front and center. It was a “complete disaster” according to Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Larry Hogan. “We rolled up our selves and got it done” was the response from Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown. “You want to give this guy a promotion, says Hogan. Brown counters, it may have gone badly but the Democratic nominee was prepared to crow about 400,000 people signed up for the Health Exchange.

These are tried and tested quotes the campaigns love. If anything getting them off the talking points has been nearly impossible. The closest we get to being non-scripted is having each man calling the other by their first names. The name calling continued, “You lying about my record.”  “Your math doesn’t add up,” have been lobbed before.

This time there was a lot of pushing on the numbers. “You would cut 450 million dollars from school construction. That would gut the entire Montgomery County’s school construction,” says Lt. Governor Brown. “I don’t know where you got that number…all I asked for was to streamline government…we would never decrease school construction” countered Hogan. It almost became juvenile with each many man trying to one up each other.

There is one debate left and I’m as confused as the electorate. More importantly the race for Governor has not generated the excitement a race of this nature should create. Sure the “political junkies” are salivating for their opportunity to boast our guy one. Unfortunately, this is one of the winner take all battles that get Maryland political operatives “ginned up.” If you not a part of this class you’re likely hoping it ends soon. Trying to get through this clutter is mind-boggling.

Look here are some of the realities if Hogan wins he’ll have to work with Democratic majorities.  “Maybe we’ll find consensus and compromise,” says the Republican Gubernatorial Nominee. “I have a good working relationship with presiding officers,” counters Lt. Governor Brown. These are great talking points but they underlie several critical issues. The State Comptroller pointed out tax revenue is down and you will have to cut. This is reality.  Lastly, we aren’t in as bad shape as people say we are.

The Polls Tell Different Stories

On the eve of this debate the Baltimore Sun released a poll (http://www.baltimoresun.com/videogallery/81642382/Politics/Sun-Poll-Brown-shows-lead-over-Hogan) it shows while the race is tight Brown continues to have a 7 point lead. Prior to this poll the Washington Post Poll came to a similar conclusion (9 point lead). Early polls show the gap narrowing but, overall the leader was Brown. It showed the Hogan campaign had cut into what should be a “runaway race” for Brown.

There is even sometimes out of context polls taken in Maryland. Maryland Reporter (www.MarylandReporter.com) pointed out and instance in the CBS News/NY Times poll. Noting the bogus numbers, it showed a 17 point for the Lieutenant Governor. This spread was far outside what established polls reported (http://marylandreporter.com/2014/10/12/cbs-news-n-y-times-poll-has-bogus-numbers-for-md-again/).

The dagger however was the endorsement of Brown by the Washington Post. The Post called Lt. Governor Brown, “the more knowledgeable man and nimble politician.” In their selection they called Hogan’s economic plan “mush.” You can imagine this did not sit well with the Hogan campaign. Interesting this camp went after the messengers.

John Wagner who writes for the Post noted in a column, “Hogan also accused The Washington Posteditorial board of a “lack of journalistic integrity.” After the debate he charged News Channel 8 moderators with conducting “an interrogation.” Suggesting this was the conspiracy of “the liberal media.” Look I cut it straight down the line. A similar tone was expressed by RedStateMaryland.blogspot.com. Note to political operatives, whining is not a political strategy.

Turn Out

It’s clear this will not be Maryland’s finest hour when it comes to turn out. In an appearance on WEAA-FM I was joined by Barry Rascovar, Columnist for the Gazette, and Independent Political Consultant, Catalina Byrd. Rascovar rationalize what each man hopes from turnout. “Hogan needs big turnouts on the Eastern Shore and in Western Maryland…for Brown he has to get big numbers in Prince Georges, Montgomery, and Howard Counties.” He said Hogan hopes there is enough apathy in those counties which will make the race close.

I also surmised there is a fatigued factor with democrats in the state. A Goucher Poll showed if the current governor (Martin O’Malley) were allowed to run again, he wouldn’t win the state. All of these factors will play out in the waning days of the campaign. Expect more negative ads.

Pet Peeves

The post debate pressers are a combination of spin, political adjustment, and a chance to say you won. In the last two events after debates Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown has been a no show. At the first event there was Ken Ullman for the Democrats and a number legislators. Appreciated this effort but, where was the Lieutenant Governor? We saw him behind dark windows in an SUV. On cue, who emerges from behind close doors as these surrogates are begining to speak, Larry Hogan. What's his first  statement, "We won the debate." Look there is a new school of thoughts in Public Relations circles - control the message, limit exposure, shut off question before you get a tough one. Okay, you want to play this silly game let me suggest it's not our responsibility to cover you when the subject matter is less than newsworthy. FYI, a surrogate other than the Lieutenant Governor is a second hand source. I am not required to ask questions that hit your talking points. 

Can you hear me!!!!

  

Taking the Pulse

 (Goucher College) Maryland is not a factor in the Presidential race but, its voters are a laboratory experiment for a series of ballot questions with potential implications that will radically change life in the state. Where are Marylanders on these new initiatives? I got a chance to watch what it’s like to be in the room as pollsters are taking the pulse of an electorate.

It’s 7:00 pm in the Olga V. Bowden Library Classroom on the campus of Goucher College. There are 40 students seated at tables with headsets and computer screens.  They have spent an hour and half training with Mileah Kromer.  Kristen Keener Pinheiro of Goucher allowed me to watch. She tells me, “We’ve given them a script…to keep them focus.” A number of the students are getting nowhere with respondents, but others are getting more than they asked for. “How often do you attend church,” asks a questioner. She records the response into a screen. While the conversation continues I’m amazed that there is more gab between the pair. “Mam, I'm here just to collect the information,” and with that the conversation ends.

The Goucher Poll  joins a growing list of organizations conducting polls this season. Maryland hasn’t been in the mix of polls being watched because it’s not a battleground for the national campaigns. The state has become this unique laboratory on issues which may rise up on the national level.

They include a pair of questions via a referendum to allow instate tuition at community colleges for the children of undocumented workers; and the sanctioning of same sex marriage in the state. What will surprise no one is a lot of outside money has come in to stop these issues.  Conversely, championing these two issues is Governor Martin O’Malley who is hanging his attempts to run for President in 2016 on their passage.

Voter Referendum

Del. Neil Parrott

The conservative base has had little to hang its hat on in the state, but using computer based targeting Delegate Neil Parrott  has “flipped the script” on ballot initiatives. Until this year few if any initiatives reached the state threshold for being certified (18,000 signatures).  Delegate Parrott, a GOP member from Washington County, put up a website (http://mdpetitions.com/) and asked for people to sign up and weigh in on the issue of instate tuition. People were able to sign the petition and he linked voting data to petitioners which allowed for little attrition on invalid names. Parrott and his followers also went in person to targeted districts who did not favor the change in the state law. Before long they had the required signatures and expanded the petition drive to encompass same sex marriage and a revision of the governors redistricting plan.

Pastor Derek McCoy

Initially, the public ground swell was evidence of a deep suspicion of Maryland government which came together in the election of Robert Erhlich as governor. Just as Erhlich learned you don't have enough Republicans in the state to win and it allows for unique coalitions. The idea of strange bedfellows was born in the marriage of Black Churches and same sex marriage. The legislative odd couple came when Del Parrott joined forces with Derek McCoy, of the Maryland Marriage Alliance. McCoy, who is Black, was able to tap into a large and vocal Black clergy to rally them against the idea of gay marriage. When I initially asked Mr. McCoy about fundraising for this cause he didn't have an answer. There is now an answer, and it has come from groups that are funding a media campaign which I expected.

Not to be Out Done

 

The Governor has been able to enlist a bevy of Hollywood heavyweights to back the same sex marriage issue. He’s made campaign stops from California,Washington, DC, and New York to showcase the issue and could serve as the bank he needs to make a presidential run. According to a source close to the governor, “he can tie up the Irish Catholics/Kennedy’s in New England and tie that to Hollywood and that’s a win win.”

To combat the religious/philosophical appeal from those oppose to same sex marriage those who favor granting marriage to same sex couples they have turned to the civil rights community which garners large following from those in the church. The big guns were brought in from Famed Civil Rights Activist Julian Bond and NAACP CEO Benjamin Jealous.

This is a win at all cost for the Governor. No state has approved either the same sex marriage issue or the instate tuition provision. The way I see it he wins if he wins or loses. If he wins he'll be able to tout it as an accomplishment. If he loses he can say, "see I tried."

What the Polls Say about Both Issues.

 

 Courtesy: Goucher Poll Dr. Mileah Kromer Director, Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center

 

 Rolling the Dice

If there is one issue on the ballot that is driving all other it is the issue of expansion of gambling.  The total spending for all media is in the neighborhood 70 million dollars. Much of the ads have targeted the population centers in Baltimore and the Washington, DC Metro Area. The wildcard if there is one is how will Prince Georges County vote? For several years the legislative members of the this group have fought back efforts to bring gambling to this District suburb. 

A recent debate at MPT studios between Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker and Jacqueline Goodall, the Mayor of Forest Heights. The debate became emotional and shed no light on what would be best for the county. This is where the rubber meets the road.  So how did this come out in the Goucher Poll?

 

Courtesy: Goucher Poll Dr. Mileah Kromer Director, Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center

Polls are only mere snapshots of an electorate at a given time. They tell you a simple truth, where voters are when they are sampled. I got a a chance to see the process and will vouch for its validity. I am still concerned about it's inability to take into account cellphone users (this poll factored in 25% of those polled). The sampling of mobile phone users will have to increase in the future in order to get a true picture of what voter are thinking.

For more information and detail on the Goucher Poll please go to http://www.goucher.edu/x50825.xml

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