Searching for Ms. Mabel: Observations on the Maryland Primary for Governor

(Baltimore, MD) The days, the ads, and candidates have made their case. Maryland for all of its “purpleness” is still a “Blue State.” With the election of Governor, a Senator, Congress persons, a Comptroller and members of the legislature (not to mention local races) there should be tons of reason to participate in the process. There is a “lack luster” feel to this primary except for the billboards, mailers, the radio/online ads and TV ads. The faithful have already cast their ballots. Those who are waiting for primary day (Tuesday, 19 July 2022) either procrastinated or are traditionalist (I vote on Election Day.)

The Maryland State Board of Election (MDSBE) already knows as of July 15, 2022, 182,035 voters have casted ballots. This does not include the number of mail-in ballots. According to the MDSBE, those ballots won’t be counted until 7/21 – 29. In a word a delay. Those numbers come close to past cycles, but it means the margins for winnings will be close.

Baltimore Central Baptist Usher Board

Looking for Ms. Mabel

For each of these candidates I have suggested they look for Ms. Mabel (and yes I have asked several if they know who she is and where to find her). This voter is a real person. You can find her in church on Sunday. She is likely to greet you if you come to her church. “Welcome, to Mount Calvary Church of God in Christ/The Evangelista Guadalupe Church/The Holy Church of the Redeemer Catholic Church.”

As she takes you to your pew, she is likely to be dressed in all white with gloves, and a fan. “It’s so nice to have you join us for service today,” says Ms. Mabel. Unbeknownst, to you and your handlers, Ms. Mabel is a widow. Her husband served in World II or Vietnam. She is retired and secure in her faith.

Appold United Methodist Church

“So young man/woman, why are you here today?” The logical person will go straight political. “I’m running for office and I want your vote!” This will not work on Ms. Mabel.

Your answer should be, “I am here to worship the lord. I want you to know this won’t be the last time you will see me. By the third time I come back, I hope you will know me. I hope you will be confident enough to allow me to ask for your vote.” Her reply is, simple, “that’s nice.”

You have planted a seed. It can pay dividends, but only if you follow through. Her reach is enormous. Not only does she serve on the usher board, the ladies auxiliary, and the church Foundation Board. She has more influence then the pastor.

In Maryland, never discount the power of the pulpit and Ms. Mabel if you want to chance of winning.

Observations

When this primary season began there were very few obvious front runners. Those who claimed to be in that camp told me “this is my race to lose.” A number of factors play into why one decides to take the leap to “run for office.” Lining up supporters, fundraising, assessing the field are just a few of items you need to have in place.

Far be it from me to discount those with national experience in running campaigns. In Maryland, those who have not spent time on the ground can’t answer some simple questions.

1.       All Black voters in this state are same?

2.       There’s no differences between Latino and Hispanic votes in Baltimore and DC Metro area?

3.       Do know where Maryland City, Deale, Ocean Pines, and Sideling Hill are located in Maryland?

4.       You know all Black Republican voters are “Uncle Toms” or Democrats never vote for Republicans?

5.       Wedge issues of race, sex, gender, and class are the keys to winning Maryland?

These answers won’t get you where you need to be…but have someone on your team who can answer these questions without going to “Google” will give you a clue.

The Democratic Field

Early in this process it was clear the Maryland Democratic Party had not cultivated enough women to run for office. It was apparent in the Governor’s race. It took months for Laura Neuman, a former Anne Arundel Count Executive. The Neuman switched from the Republican Party to Democratic Party to join a crowded field. She didn’t last long after raising $109,000 in three weeks. She would throw her support to Peter Franchot, the state’s Comptroller, the considered frontrunner.

At one of the first events to showcase the contenders was the “Democratic Backyard Bash” held in Upper Marlboro. For an outside observer, the favorite question was, “Who is that?” “What office are they running for?” Early on any kind of traction is important.

A number of the candidates call Montgomery County home. They include Franchot, Tom Perez, John King, Doug Gansler, and Ashwani Jain. Montgomery Counties population is changing. The area around DC Metro (Silver Spring-population US Census- 81,069/Rockville- population US Census-68,155/Bethesda – population US Census- 65,092)has an influx of immigrants. The traditional home owner has been replaced by renters.  Sounds of salsa and dialects (Portuguese/Spanish) from South America permeate this community.

The county is also home to some of the most expensive real estate in the state (Potomac – population US Census - 46,256). There is also a large contingent of federal employees and retirees who call “Leisure World” home (Rossmoor – population US Census -  9,215). Based on census data there are 269,787 voters up for grabs.

My observation, no one has clear path to grabbing a majority. This means the Montgomery County candidates will have to marry voters from other jurisdictions in order to have a chance. This will include Prince Georges, Howard, Anne Arundel, and Baltimore Counites.

Endorsements

There are some solid endorsements which can turn into votes. It includes and not limited to unions and teachers. They turn out their base and are seen as a stamp of approval. The AFSCME endorsement went to Tom Perez who was the former Labor Secretary. To a surprise of many, first time candidate, Wes Moore, snagged the teachers endorsement from Franchot.

There are number of other endorsements which other candidates will “crow as feathers in their caps.” The candidate’s endorsement can be found on their websites, which I don’t need to rehash.

Newspaper Endorsements

This can be tricky. The two largest newspapers in the state, The Baltimore Sun , and the Washington Post have weighed in. Each have chosen Tom Perez as their candidate. While they have made cogent arguments as to why. I noticed that neither paper picked an African-American candidate for state wide office. How should I interpret this? Are these media groups “gun shy” because the last two Democratic nominees were Black and shellacked by a Republican Governor. I would offer up they were flawed, in ways which I outlined in an earlier post (funding/not originally from Maryland/getting your base to the polls).

A number of polls show this is a three-person race between Franchot, Moore, and Perez. Turnout will win the day. I believe the person who can get more than 450,000 voters to the polls will win the day.

FYI, race will be factor, no mater who wins in the General Election (we are in a polarized environment). 

GOP Candidates

Despite a crowded field this is a two-person race in the Republican Party, Kelly Schulz and Dan Cox. Each are trying to replace Governor Larry Hogan. The endorsement by Governor Hogan of Schulz was expected and is a plus, but will it be enough? Cox has the endorsement of former president Donald Trump.

There is strong support for Trump within the Maryland GOP. The anti-Trump wing of the GOP supports Hogan along with a number of “Blue-Dog Democrats.” This is a problem. Democrats can’t vote in a closed primary.

I have interviewed each of the front-runners. They have an affinity for the state, but have different approaches.

Kelly Schulz

Schulz, a Hogan administration member, knows the ropes of state government. A good thing to have, but voters are looking for your “bona-fides.” The former defense contractor lives in Frederick, MD. She was born in Michigan. She has worked, raised a family, and gotten her degree from St. Mary’s College. What intrigues me about the only female candidate is how she has re-envisioned her life. There are few candidates willing to share she got pregnant which forced her to drop out of school.  She came to Maryland and came up the hard way working in a bar, taking night classes while taking her boys to hockey practices.

The most recent sighting of Schulz had her in the Walbrook Junction neighborhood of Baltimore City. Doni Glover of BmoreNews.com questioned her commitment to people with drug additions in Baltimore City. “I think it goes back to treating criminals like criminals not having consequences to illegal actions,” according to the Republican candidate.

 Members of the GOP have used drug addiction in the suburbs as an urgent action, but did they forget suburbanites get their drugs from urban centers. Oh wait, it’s about crime, which plays well.

With a significant “political war chest” this should be “cake walk.” Members of the Schulz Team are concerned. How do I know? I am getting bombard by emails, ads, and mailers. The Schultz Team is leaving nothing to chance.

 Dan Cox

Cox, is a “died in the wool Maryland Republican.” He endorsed Hogan initially, but split with him on his approach to COVID-19. This made him a hero to Trump who gave him an endorsement. According to Cox, “my campaign is about freedom.” This is innocuous to all but loyal GOP members. It is a mantra a number of MAGA members have adopted. As best as I can ascertain, it’s about the freedom to do what you want, when you want, how you want. Its protecting liberty, it’s making sure you have the tools to fight crime (more police), and making sure any policy which would expand the rights of people who don’t share your values are stopped before they can influence others who are like you.

You aren’t likely to hear from those who support Cox because they see you as the enemy. They will refer you to their campaign website. Asked about a schism in the Republican Party and he pointed to Hogan “oppressing Maryland citizens” during the COVID-19 crisis. This came during his endorsement announcement from Trump. In that curious moment, a gust of wind knocked down an American flag which flanked him and his running mate.

There is an interesting machine providing a lot of the anti-Cox rhetoric. It includes a number of former Hogan operatives. Douglass Mayer is advising the Schulz Campaign. Mayer, said this,  “Dan Cox is what happens when crazy meets stupid. A person who believes…the Chinese Communist Party has infiltrated MD state government. He is not a rational actor."

Cox is not phased by these comments. Here’s what I do know and have seen. As you travel to the Eastern shore or Western Maryland you’re like to see more Dan Cox signs on the major and minor roadways. Polls show this is a close race. Add a TV media buy the Democratic Governors Association in the waning moments linking Cox to Trump has the Shulz Campaign upset.

The upset would be if Cox bests Schulz in the primary. It would shake up a potential run for president by Governor Larry Hogan.

Charles F. Robinson, III

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